Will It Be Over?

I meant to get a post up last night about today's elections, but I got stuck at the Mason's Lodge too long and by the time I got home it was time to go to sleep. Plus my buddy Ryan who is supposed to be helping with the site is totally MIA. I think he did two posts and vanished. Once I track him down, we're going to do some more changes to the site.

There really isn't much to talk about on the GOP side. Huck should drop out and McCain should really spend the next two months cozying up to conservatives. Though I consider McCain to be relatively moderate to conservative, a lot of people-- especially the right wing-- consider him to be a liberal. One day the right wing will relinquish it's hold on the Republican Party and we'll be able to have actual debates about policy rather than political labels. It's a messed up world when John McCain is considered a liberal.

On the Dem side this is a big day for Hillary. I think she has to win both TX and OH to be able to claim any legitimacy to stay in the race. She very well could win both states, it wouldn't surprise if she did. Judging from the latest pollster.com graph, TX is a dead heat and Hillary looks like she can pull off OH.With a split decision of Hillary in OH and Obama in TX, that will probably be enough for Hillary to say she's not going anywhere. And more power to her. But there will come a time when what's best for the party has to trump what's best for personal politics. Personally I would love to see this go all the way to the convention and let the delegates hatch out a deal for the nominee. As someone who studies politics, that's like a nerdy version of UFC. I don't have any qualms about voting for either Obama or Hillary come November. I also understand that the best thing for a Dem win in November is that we have a nominee sooner rather than later.

For the time being, though, I'm enjoying this year's race. A little Dem dual for the nomination is fine because even though the Repubs have a nominee they really don't have any better of a situation when that nominee hasn't captured the actual conservative vote but one time this year.

*Update:

It seems Matt Yglesias and I have a different outlook on the Hillary staying or going thing.

Basically, Clinton would be completely burning years worth of goodwill built up by her and her husband in the progressive community and ending her shot at playing a leadership role in the Senate in exchange for a very marginal increase in the odds of her becoming president in January 2009. A choice like that would be bad for the country, bad for the party, and bad for Hillary Clinton.

The first part I agree with. Both Bill and Hillary remain popular figures in Democratic circles. Also in national circles as well. Bill left office with a 66% approval rating (more than double that of George Bush) and Hillary maintains a 50+ likability measure. Bush and Republicans have wet dreams about numbers as high as the Clinton's. If Bush could somehow push back into the lower 30s before the end of his term, National Review and Fox News will have crowned him the greatest and most popular president to ever govern with a mandate in the history of human existence, especially when figuring in DNA and humanity, the right wing will undoubtedly crown Bush as the world's only living icon superior to all others.

Matt's second part that if Hillary only wins one of the two key states that she should drop out because it will be "bad for the country, bad for the party and bad for Hillary," I don't necessarily agree with. I fail to see how Hillary staying in is such a bad thing. Sure having the nominee known tomorrow would be great but I don't think stretching this out a little longer is going to damage Dem chances in November all that much. Like I said earlier, it's not like John McCain is the poster boy for the Republican base. As long as McCain is the nominee, which he will be, then having Obama and Hillary gutting it out for another month or two is not as bad as Yglesias makes it sound.

I think what worries those who agree with Yglesias is that while McCain is out soaking in the sun, the Dems are going to be barbing back and forth allowing the Republican nominee way too much wiggle room thus hurting our chances in November. I can understand the concern I just don't see it as a bad thing, for the party or the country. I think Hillary and Obama are both more than able to handle two opponents at the same time. Now if Hillary or Obama's extended primary becomes problematic for the Democratic base, which both seem to have absolutely no problems capturing when the other drops out, like is the case on the GOP side, then I'll agree that the person with the smallest mathematical delegate chance should drop out ASAP.

I guess my reasoning is that having a base problem is worse than having two very viable candidates who have no problems with the base. But maybe I'm thinking in primary terms and should shift gears to general election terms.

Editor's Note: The original update to this post listed Bill Clinton's approval rating as 62% when he left office. After further checking I discovered I was off by 4 percentage points. Clinton left office with a 66% approval rating (way more than double what Bush's is currently).