2.19.2008

Wisconsin Summary

The latest summary out of Wisconsin has Obama up roughly seven points over Hillary. This will be a make or break state for Obama if he is to have any luck between now and March 5.

For the Republicans I am as shocked as I've ever been about what's going on. The media is 24/7 about the classic battle between Clinton and Obama and really neglecting another historical issue developing on the GOP side- the fact that John McCain is still getting quite the competition from Huckabee. McCain, too, has a roughly seven point lead over Huckabee.

Sure the Dem race deserves the attention it's getting. This is a classic race that could possibly go all the way to the convention to where the delegates will have to do an ol' fashion selection show to pick a candidate. To me that's excitement. Yes, I know I'm boring, but look at the GOP side. McCain is the nominee, it's not even a race. There is no way Huck can catch him. The only thing barring a McCain nomination is that he doesn't live long enough to see the convention, which is entirely possible. Yet Huck is still on his heels in Wisconsin. How is that even possible? McCain's only competition, Romney, drops out and throws all his support behind him, even begging his delegates to now support McCain. But what that green line is showing is that Huck actually gained support after Romney quit. Meaning not all his supporters listened to him and went to the McCain Camp but instead are now looking for any choice but McCain. I guess I really didn't realize how unpopular McCain is until today.

We have the MSM entirely focused on Hillary/Obama depicting it as infighting capable of destroying the Democratic Party (which it won't trust me) and then we have a complete evasion on the GOP side where the actual front runner is extremely unpopular causing the base to revolt and look for any white man but McCain. To me there's just as huge of a story on the GOP side with McCain's unpopularity compared to the Dems' saga.

I guess we'll know in a few hours how big McCain will win. But if he's not winning by 20 points at this juncture I would have to call that pretty sad. I mean he's pretty much running against "none of the above."

*Update:

Ooops! Read the pollster wrong. It has McCain with a 10 point lead. Not huge compared to the fact that he's running against no one. But 10 is more than the 7 I said originally.

** Late Update:

With about 30% reporting McCain is awful close to that 20% mark I said he had to have in order not to look sad: McCain 54-Huckabee 38%.

Both races have been called with both Obama and McCain with large leads. I still contend it would have been a long night for McCain if he doesn't win by 20.

0 comments: