2.26.2008

Wisconsin Exit Polling

I haven't had time until this morning to look at some of the exit polling from the Feb. 19 primaries. In the past I've tried to look at exit polling to get a gauge of public opinion as a whole. I know this isn't the most accurate way of doing such, but it does measure voter opinions on the very day they vote. In other words, monthly polling like most major consulting firms do doesn't always capture voter opinion on the one day they can exercise that opinion, voting. To me it's more accurate to state that you don't like snow when you're standing in four feet of it than if you've never seen snow. Again, not the most accurate thing ever but for me it makes sense. As has been the case all season, I'm very interested in some of the Republican numbers coming out of these exit polls. And it appears that for the first time McCain has won conservatives with the Wisconsin primary.

Conservatives
Huckabee 44%
McCain 48%

That's remarkable in itself for the Republican nominee to just now get his first victory with the Party's base. But, judging from this years polling, what exactly is the Republican base?

Ideology
Conservative 61%
Moderate/Liberal 39%

We're seeing a very moderate Party showing up to vote. Some will say that's no big deal, that it only proves the Republican Party is middle America, which I totally disagree with, but considering that anything remotely close to center is considered liberal or enemy territory for the right wing, I would say that having 40% of your Party in that realm is a scary thing to someone like Rush Limbaugh or Fox News.

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