Don't Call it a Comeback!

By all accounts, Obama’s not going to run away with it just yet. I think anyone who follows politics closely would say they are a little surprised by yesterday’s Democratic Primary in New Hampshire. Shocked, no. Surprised, yes. The biggest question of the day is how were the polls so wrong? I suppose all that depends on what poll the question is pertaining to. Cause I’m not sure the polls were entirely wrong. Here’s Pollster’s standard estimate which clearly shows Obama’s numbers entirely accurate. It also lists Hillary at 31%, meaning that without the last minute deciders deciding for Hillary she was trailing Obama by 7 percentage points. Then something happened…people voted and those who were undecided the day before the election and maybe the day of turned out to support Hillary in larger numbers than Obama. Here’s some exit poll numbers showing that Hillary won the undecided’s 39-36% with those who made up their minds the day before the election. With those who decided the day of the election and those who decided while they were in the booth doing rock/paper/scissors, that’s more than enough to get a 39-37 win.

In summary, Hillary closed great with the undecided's and obviously made an impression on them in the final two days, including the day of.

So the polls weren’t wrong. The undecided’s were high, and those voting for the first time were high. Like I said on Monday, even the wisest amongst has no clue what’s going to happen. But the polling numbers were right on track. They did what they were supposed to do.