3.10.2008

Limbaugh Voters

How about the army of Republican voters the great entertainer Limbaugh dispatched to vote for Hillary in Texas? In hopes of prolonging the Democratic primary and in hopes of "bloodying" up Obama, the drug-addicted Limbaugh urged Republican voters to vote in the Democratic primary in Texas, and in some instances in Ohio, for Hillary Clinton. As much of a champion of democracy and patriotism Limbaugh is, the effects were, well hard to find.

Obama actually won the Republican Democratic primary vote, 53-46. A total of 9% voting in the Dem race were Republican. That's comparable to all previous Republican Democratic turnout. So Limbaugh didn't persuade Republicans to turn out in greater numbers. But did he persuade the Republicans who turned out to vote for Hillary instead? In Wisconsin a few weeks before Texas, Obama won 72% of the Republican Democratic vote. Again in Virginia Obama won a remarkable 72% of Republican voters who pulled a Dem ticket. In Ohio and Texas the Republican numbers were much closer, with about a 50/50 tie in Ohio. So yeah it does appear Limbaugh persuaded Republican voters, who were going to vote anyway, to vote for Hillary instead of Obama. But was it enough to swing the election to Hillary? Nope. The Hispanic vote was overwhelmingly for Hillary and even had Obama won 60-70% of Republicans it still would not have been enough to overcome the Hispanic population.

If not delivering us five more weeks of Hillary, Druggie did prove one thing. There are still Republicans who actually listen to Rush Limbaugh and heed his advice. Amazing I know. But the numbers are very much smaller than they used to be. And really had no direct bearing in Texas, the largest conservative/Republican state in the Union, which to me is more amazing than the fact that people still listen to him. If Limbaugh can't motivate Texas, the guy's pretty much useless for whatever sway he thought he had.

*Update:

Putting some real hardcore numbers to Limbaugh's ability to swing elections. Roughly 2.8 million people in Texas voted Democratic last Tuesday. Nine percent polled as Republican crossovers. Obama won the crossovers 53-46, or 134,447 total votes for Obama. Let's say Obama had won his usual 70% of Republicans, that means druggie persuaded 43,125 self-identified Republicans to vote for Hillary. That's about 1.5% of the total vote. The 43,XXX is just a guess since we really don't know how many intended on voting for Obama and then changed their minds after Limbaugh told them not to. Still the Limbaugh effect was no where near enough to overcome Hillary's 300,000+ Hispanic vote margin. Limbaugh switched some votes, but no more than the weather did.

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